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Σ' ένα άλλο άρθρο του ίδιου Evan Osnos βρήκα ένα λινκ προς μια συνέντευξη του ειδικού στην κινεζική κρεμλινολογία Cheng Li, του πανεπιστημίου του Πρίνστον, με τίτλο The Bo Xilai Crisis: Confidence Gained or Risk Increased?, που συνοψίζει ωραία τα διακυβεύματα της δίκης του Bo Xilai και της επερχόμενης αλλαγής ηγεσίας στη Λαϊκή Κίνα, η οποία αλλαγή δεν είναι, παρά τα φαινόμενα, λιγότερο κρίσιμη για το παγκόσμιο γίγνεσθαι από την εκλογή του επόμενου Αμερικανού προέδρου:
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A review of the recent intellectual discourse in China reveals a heated discussion about the current risk of revolution in the country. One of the most popular books in intellectual circles today is the Chinese translation of Alexis de Tocqueville's classic study, The Old Regime and the Revolution. One frequently quoted passage is Tocqueville's argument that revolution usually takes place not when the old regime resists change but, rather, when it begins to reform itself. Conservative hardliners in the CCP leadership may ultimately decide to resist political reform at all costs, rendering the current consensus on reform either wishful thinking or a temporary condition. Some policy differences in the leadership, especially concerning political reform and personnel appointments, could become contentious and even result in factional infighting spiraling out of control. The new leadership may find it increasingly difficult to build the kind of consensus necessary to govern effectively. Thus, the upcoming Bo Xilai trial may polarize Chinese society and enhance the risk of sociopolitical unrest.
(...)
Thus, although we still do not know for sure whether the crisis is a blessing or a curse, the party's handling of the Bo Xilai case gives some hope that things are moving in the right direction. Time will tell whether this landmark trial can provide the CCP leadership with the confidence to pursue bold and genuine political reforms and provide the Chinese public with renewed confidence in a reborn ruling party. If not, China is headed toward even greater trouble, not only because demagogic figures in the mold of Bo Xilai may be even more brazen and despicable in the future, but also because the regime will lose all of the credibility and legitimacy that it so desperately needs to restore.
(...)
A review of the recent intellectual discourse in China reveals a heated discussion about the current risk of revolution in the country. One of the most popular books in intellectual circles today is the Chinese translation of Alexis de Tocqueville's classic study, The Old Regime and the Revolution. One frequently quoted passage is Tocqueville's argument that revolution usually takes place not when the old regime resists change but, rather, when it begins to reform itself. Conservative hardliners in the CCP leadership may ultimately decide to resist political reform at all costs, rendering the current consensus on reform either wishful thinking or a temporary condition. Some policy differences in the leadership, especially concerning political reform and personnel appointments, could become contentious and even result in factional infighting spiraling out of control. The new leadership may find it increasingly difficult to build the kind of consensus necessary to govern effectively. Thus, the upcoming Bo Xilai trial may polarize Chinese society and enhance the risk of sociopolitical unrest.
(...)
Thus, although we still do not know for sure whether the crisis is a blessing or a curse, the party's handling of the Bo Xilai case gives some hope that things are moving in the right direction. Time will tell whether this landmark trial can provide the CCP leadership with the confidence to pursue bold and genuine political reforms and provide the Chinese public with renewed confidence in a reborn ruling party. If not, China is headed toward even greater trouble, not only because demagogic figures in the mold of Bo Xilai may be even more brazen and despicable in the future, but also because the regime will lose all of the credibility and legitimacy that it so desperately needs to restore.
